Model
Modelling readiness — which leagues have enough history to fit
| League | Training rows | Needed | Predictions from | Lines recorded | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 370 | 40 | fitted model | 16 | 14 |
| LaLiga | 35 | 40 | naive midpoint | 6 | 4 |
| Bundesliga | 17 | 40 | naive midpoint | 11 | 10 |
A league under 40 rows falls back to the naive midpoint — the side's own recent possession averaged against what its opponent concedes. Those rows are marked * below. The threshold is about four rows per feature, a rule of thumb rather than a measured cliff.
Stake guidance — open lines, rated out of 10
Two separate things have to be true before staking much: the edge must be large, and the model must have shown it can find real edges. The first is arithmetic; the second is a track record. The rating is the smaller of the two, so a big edge from a model with no record scores low — correctly. It is 28 settled bets in, so the ceiling is low for a while yet.
| Kickoff | League | Match | Line is about | Line | Under | Over | Model | Market | Bet | Edge | Stake | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep 20:00 | Premier League | LEE v NEW | Newcastle United | 52.5 | 1.70 | 2.01 | 57.8% | 46% over | OVER | +25.0% | 2/10 | edge alone suggests 5/10, capped at 2 by a very thin track record (14 settled) |
| 13 Sep 15:30 | Bundesliga | ELV v FCB | FC Bayern München | 65.0 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 60.0%* | 50% over | UNDER | +18.3% | 2/10 | edge alone suggests 4/10, capped at 2 by a very thin track record (10 settled) |
| 13 Sep 14:15 | LaLiga | LEV v BAR | FC Barcelona | 70.6 | 1.84 | 1.84 | 60.1%* | 50% over | UNDER | +35.0% | 1/10 | edge alone suggests 8/10, capped at 1 by almost no track record (4 settled) |
| 13 Sep 16:30 | Premier League | MUN v MCI | Manchester City | 56.5 | 2.01 | 1.70 | 58.6% | 54% over | OVER | +1.6% | 1/10 | edge of +1.6% at 1.70 |
| 13 Sep 19:00 | LaLiga | RSO v ATM | Atlético de Madrid | 52.6 | 1.84 | 1.84 | 52.6%* | 50% over | no bet | -4.3% | 0/10 | best side is OVER at 1.84, still 4.3% short of its 54.3% breakeven |
* 3 rows here did not come from a fitted model. This league has too little history to fit one, so the figure is the naive midpoint: the side's own recent possession averaged against what its opponent concedes — on as few as two matches each. That formula shrinks towards 50 by construction, so it understates a mismatch. A strong side away at a weak one reads too low, and the edge it implies against a bookmaker's line can point the wrong way entirely. The Bet, Edge and Stake columns on these rows are arithmetic, not a tested prediction.
0/10 means the price is against you — not a close call, a bet to skip. Anything above that is a fraction of what you would stake at full confidence, and quarter-Kelly is treated as the ceiling even at 10/10, because Kelly assumes the probability is exactly right and this one is an estimate.