PLdata

Bet record

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Every recorded line, what the model said about it, and how it settled. The point is to build a track record before staking anything on one — a model's own edge estimate is a claim about itself, and this is the only thing that can check it. Predictions come from the fitted model where a league has enough history for one, at σ = 8.02. Rows marked * came from the naive midpoint instead, because that league cannot fit a model yet — see below the table.
16
Lines recorded
15
Settled
9
Backed by the model
positive edge only
-0.02
Profit / loss (units)
-0.2%
Return on stake
on 9 bets — not a result

Should you be betting this yet?

Not yet.

only 9 settled bets. Below about 50 the result is noise whichever way it falls.

Bets the model actually backed, settled 9
Won 5 (56%)
Breakeven at these prices
The average of 1/odds across the bets taken — the rate that merely breaks even
55%
Standard errors clear of breakeven
Below 2 the result is within what luck produces
0.1

The rule: bet when the model has beaten the market by more than luck explains — not when it claims an edge. A model's own edge estimate is a claim about itself; the only thing that can check it is a settled record. Two standard errors is the usual bar, and at these prices that means roughly 100–200 settled bets. That is not pessimism, it is what it costs to tell a real 5% edge from a coin that landed well.

You do not have to stake money to get there. Every recorded line is graded whether or not a bet was placed, so the record builds itself for free.

15 settled — far too few to conclude anything. Detecting a real 5% edge with any confidence takes something closer to 100–200 settled bets. Until then this page is a record, not a verdict, and a run of wins is as likely to be luck as skill. Note also that only 10 of 16 lines have both prices, so the bookmaker's margin cannot be stripped out of the rest — every edge below is measured against an inflated probability, which understates the true bar.
Kickoff Match Line is about Line Bet Odds Model P(side) Edge Stake Actual Result
14 Sep LEE v NEW Newcastle United 52.5 OVER 2.01 58.3 76% +26.6% ★ 2/10 - pending
13 Sep MUN v MCI Manchester City 56.5 no bet - 57.0 48% -2.2% 0/10 45.3 skipped
12 Sep SUN v ARS Arsenal 56.5 UNDER 1.84 54.9 58% +3.6% ★ 1/10 57.2 lost
12 Sep TOT v EVE Tottenham Hotspur 56.5 OVER 1.70 60.7 70% +11.4% ★ 2/10 62.4 won
12 Sep AVL v NFO Aston Villa 54.5 OVER 1.84 58.4 69% +14.4% ★ 2/10 53.6 lost
12 Sep BOU v BRE Bournemouth 52.5 UNDER 1.94 50.6 59% +7.9% ★ 2/10 57.1 lost
12 Sep CHE v HUL Chelsea 66.5 no bet - 66.3 49% -2.6% 0/10 68.3 skipped
12 Sep LIV v FUL Liverpool 55.5 UNDER 1.94 52.7 64% +12.0% ★ 2/10 55.8 lost
06 Sep ARS v CHE Arsenal 54.5 OVER 1.75 60.7 78% +20.9% ★ 2/10 54.5 won
06 Sep EVE v MUN Manchester United 56.5 UNDER 2.08 56.5 50% +1.7% ★ 1/10 54.9 won
05 Sep BRE v SUN Brentford 53.5 no bet - 47.8 24% -30.6% 0/10 49.2 skipped
05 Sep FUL v CRY Fulham 55.5 OVER 1.75 62.9 82% +24.9% ★ 2/10 64.4 won
05 Sep MCI v COV Manchester City 65.5 no bet - 63.0 38% -21.0% 0/10 77.6 skipped
05 Sep NFO v TOT Tottenham Hotspur 53.5 OVER 1.70 57.7 70% +11.1% ★ 2/10 59.3 won
05 Sep BHA v LEE Brighton and Hove Albion 57.5 no bet - 68.1 9% -40.4% 0/10 67.1 skipped
05 Sep NEW v BOU Newcastle United 53.5 no bet - 54.0 48% -9.6% 0/10 57.6 skipped

Adding lines

Edit odds.txt in GitHub's web editor, paste a row, commit. The hourly run imports it. Columns are date · club · club · whose-possession · line · over · under, whitespace-separated, with - for a price you do not have. Club order does not matter. Use the abbreviations below, or names without spaces.

ARS Arsenal AVL Aston Villa BOU Bournemouth BRE Brentford BHA Brighton CHE Chelsea COV Coventry CRY Crystal Palace EVE Everton FUL Fulham HUL Hull IPS Ipswich LEE Leeds LIV Liverpool MCI Man City MUN Man Utd NEW Newcastle NFO Forest SUN Sunderland TOT Spurs